New Year, New Contracts: Setting Realistic Government Contracting Goals for 2026

Every January, small business owners are fired up about government contracting. They've made it their New Year's resolution. They're ready to win contracts. They've heard the stories about the billions of dollars government agencies spend annually, and they want their piece.

Then when you ask them about their goals for the first quarter.

"I want to win a million-dollar contract."

"I'm going to get three federal contracts by March."

"I'll replace half my commercial revenue with government work in 90 days."

These aren't goals. They're fantasies. And they set businesses up for disappointment and failure.

After 20 years on the buyer side of procurement, I understand government contracting from both perspectives. I've planned solicitations and evaluated proposals as a buyer, and I actively pursue government contracts for my own consulting business. I've learned that government contracting requires patience and persistence. I've also seen countless vendors quit after one quarter because their unrealistic expectations crashed into the reality of government procurement cycles.

Here's how to set Q1 2026 government contracting goals that are actually achievable.

Understanding the Q1 Government Contracting Timeline

The biggest mistake new government contractors make is underestimating how long everything takes.

Commercial business development operates on weeks. You identify a prospect, pitch your services, negotiate terms, and close the deal. A motivated buyer can become a paying client in 30 days.

Government contracting operates on quarters.

From the time you see a solicitation posted to contract award, you're looking at a minimum of 60-90 days. The RFP posting includes a 30-45 day response period. Then agencies need 30-45 days for evaluation, selection, and award processing.

That timeline has critical implications for your Q1 goals. If you see an RFP posted on January 15th, you're looking at a contract award in late March or early April at the earliest. More realistically, that award comes in April or May.

This means your Q1 activities focus on positioning and proposal submission, not contract awards. The wins you're working toward in Q1 will materialize in Q2 or Q3.

The Reality of Q1 Success

Here's what realistic Q1 success looks like for a small business pursuing government contracts:

You complete or verify your SAM.gov registration is current. You identify and track 15-20 relevant opportunities. You submit 3-5 quality proposals. You attend 2-3 networking or matchmaking events. You establish initial contact with 3-5 target agency procurement offices. You receive feedback on at least one proposal (likely a loss, because that comes faster than wins).

Notice what's missing: contract awards, revenue generation, immediate wins.

The businesses that succeed long-term in government contracting are the ones who accept this reality and plan accordingly. The ones who fail are those who expect Q1 proposals to generate Q1 revenue.

Customizing Goals for Your Business

Consider SMART goals to obtain government contracts. Here are some thought starters, but you should customize them based on your specific situation.

• If you're brand new to government contracting, add a goal focused on education: "Complete 3 government contracting training webinars or courses covering proposal writing, compliance basics, and market research by February 28, 2026."

• If you already have some government contracts, adjust your proposal volume goal upward: "Submit 5-7 proposals by March 31, 2026, including at least 2 opportunities larger than your current average contract value."

• If you're pursuing contracts that typically require teaming, add a partnership goal: "Identify and establish teaming agreements with 3 complementary businesses by February 28, 2026, ensuring capability gaps are covered for target opportunities."

• If you're targeting a specific agency or contract vehicle, make your relationship goal more focused: "Schedule and complete meetings with the small business liaison and 2 program managers at [specific agency] by March 15, 2026."

• If you're pursuing certifications, add a compliance goal: "Submit complete application for [specific certification] by February 15, 2026, with all required documentation and follow up on any requests within 5 business days."

The key is setting goals that reflect your current position in the government contracting journey and move you forward systematically.

The Proposal Volume Question

Three to five proposals in Q1 might seem low if you're comparing government contracting to commercial sales activity. But it's realistic for several reasons.

Government proposals require significant effort. A quality federal proposal for even a modest contract might require 40-60 hours of work. State and local proposals vary, but competitive responses still demand 20-40 hours. You cannot maintain proposal quality while submitting 15 responses per quarter.

Win rates for new contractors are low. Industry data suggests 10-20% win rates for established contractors. New contractors without government past performance often see 5-10% win rates. That means you might need to submit 10-20 proposals to win 1-2 contracts. Starting with 3-5 in Q1 is realistic while you're learning.

Not every opportunity deserves a proposal. Many solicitations posted in Q1 won't be good fits for your business. They require capabilities you don't have, past performance you can't demonstrate, or team structures you can't assemble. Submitting to poor-fit opportunities wastes time and money. Quality over quantity wins in government contracting.

This is where strategic opportunity selection becomes critical. Total Optim Bid's curated approach helps you focus on the right opportunities from the start, so you're not wasting time reviewing hundreds of irrelevant solicitations. The go/no-go analysis framework helps you make faster, more confident decisions about which opportunities deserve your full proposal effort.

Timeline Expectations for Q1 Activity

Here's the realistic timeline for Q1 2026 proposal activity:

• January proposals: Solicitations you respond to in January typically have late February or early March due dates. Agency evaluation takes 30-45 days. You're looking at April or May award dates.

• February proposals: February submissions with March deadlines lead to May or June awards.

• March proposals: Late March submissions with April deadlines won't see awards until June or July.

  
  

This means the Q1 proposal activity you're setting goals around generates Q2 and Q3 contract awards. Your Q1 revenue, if you have existing government contracts, comes from work you won in Q3 or Q4 of 2025.

Understanding this lag is critical for maintaining momentum when Q1 doesn't produce immediate wins.

The Bottom Line

Unrealistic Q1 goals kill government contracting initiatives before they start.

Business owners set impossible expectations, invest 90 days, don't see contract awards, and conclude that government contracting doesn't work. Then they walk away, often right before their Q1 proposals would have generated Q2 awards.

The businesses that succeed in government contracting are the ones who set realistic, activity-based SMART goals aligned with actual procurement timelines. They understand that Q1 is about positioning and proposal activity, not contract awards and revenue generation.

So as you're setting your New Year's resolutions for government contracting, ask yourself: are these goals realistic given how government procurement actually works, or are they fantasies that will lead to disappointment?

The right Q1 goals set you up for Q2 and Q3 success. The wrong goals set you up to quit before your proposals even finish evaluation.

That's how to set realistic government contracting goals for Q1 2026. The question is whether you'll embrace the reality of the timeline or chase unrealistic expectations.

Your choice will determine whether you're still pursuing government contracts in April or whether you've already given up.